Simulation Method of Decarbonization of International Shipping for Evaluating the Impact of Possible Regulation Limiting GHG Intensity of Marine Fuels

Abstract

This study explored how the GHG fuel standard (GFS) regulation affects international shipping quantitatively by simulating future fleet transformation, fuel consumption, and well-to-wake GHG emissions based on an inputted GHG fuel intensity pathway and scenario of transportation demand, fuel availability and costs, and technology availability. The method comprisesthree steps: calculating the amount of scrapped and built ships, allocating fuel type and mix, and calculating fuel consumption. We simulated how the regulation changes fleet composition and the mix of fuel consumption. From the perspective of feasibility and alternative fuels’ availability, some meaningful insights to implement the GFS regulation were delivered.