Integrated infection and crowd behaviour model for COVID-19 infection risk assessment onboard large passenger vessels

Abstract

The development of the global COVID-19 pandemic from 2020 onward has had significant impact on the world and specifically the maritime industry. Striking examples were COVID-19 outbreaks onboard the Diamond Princess cruise vessel and the U.S.S. Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier at the start of the pandemic. Contagious disease management onboard large passenger ships remains a complex issue, amplified by the international character of the industry, confined environment and shared facilities. This paper therefore presents an integrated infection and crowd behavior model used to calculate agent-specific infection risk, incorporating guest and crew circulation through a passenger ship layout. The integrated model is used to investigate the effect of ship layout design, capacity reduction and mask wearing on COVID-19 airborne infection risk onboard large passenger vessels.