Shallow and Deep Learning Models for Vessel Motions Forecasting during Adverse Weather Conditions

Abstract

Accurately forecasting vessel motions is a critical step towards achieving fast and accurate intelligent vessel control systems. Intelligent vessel control relies on accurate predictions of vessel motion to make informed decisions regarding control, maneuvering, and positioning, particularly during times of exogenous loading caused by adverse weather conditions. Hence, by accurately forecasting vessel motion accurately, the control system can anticipate potential issues (i.e., excessive trim or roll) and prescribe corrective actions before they become problematic. In this study, the authors propose two approaches to address the problem of vessel motion forecasting. The first approach relies on classical shallow learning models, whereas the second approach involves the use of state-of-the-art deep learning models for improved accuracy at further forecast horizons. Unlike shallow models, deep models can learn the required features directly from the data and therefore do not require a priori knowledge or additional features engineering. By leveraging deep learning models, the authors show that vessel motions can be forecasted further into the future without a significant loss in accuracy, thereby improving the overall effectiveness of the intelligent vessel control system. To support their statements, the authors use real operational data and compare the performance of the shallow and deep learning models. The results show that deep learning outperforms shallow learning models in terms of accuracy without a significant increase in the computational demand. Additionally, the authors demonstrate that their models remain accurate even under adverse weather conditions, indicating that they have practical applicability for vessel motions forecasting and can potentially improve the overall effectiveness of intelligent vessel control systems.